Good news:
AJ McCarron is off the injury report!
Bad news:
Nick Tiano hurt his foot and went on the IR. Not to pile on the guy, but it’s a bummer that he kinda blew his chance in the XFL and then put an exclamation point on it with a bum foot. Sucks for him. That’s a tough week.
At least he won?
Look at me trying to be positive.
The new guy the Battlehawks picked up is Vinny Testeverde Jr. There’s no real juice behind him, only that his dad is Vinny Testeverde. You know… the guy who has the record for the most losses as a starter in NFL history. So that’s kinda sick, I guess.
Let’s get into the preview.
Seattle Sea Dragons (5-3) @ St. Louis Battlehawks (6-2)
Sunday 4/16, 2 pm Central
This is how schedules should work. Play a team at the beginning of the season and then have the second match-up at the end of the season. Now we’re in a spot where these teams have identities so we’re looking at two very different teams than back in week 2. This is a good thing. I like this much better than playing a team 2 weeks after you played them the first time like we did with DC and Vegas.
Battlehawks’ Offense v. Sea Dragons’ Defense
In case you forgot, Brian Hill got hurt in week 1 and didn’t play in the week 2 match-up against the Sea Dragons. That’s definitely going to play a part in this game, whether it’s a good thing, a bad thing, or both. He’s got the Fumble Bug. It’s just something he has now. It’s something that never goes away, we don’t know when it’s going to show up, and he’s going to have to apologize to a group of people when he doesn’t use proper protection. Just like Herpes.
If Hill can get moving early, Seattle will make shifts to man coverage hilariously fast. That’ll put AJ and the gang in a terrific spot. This wide receiver group is great at winning against Man coverage in pretty unique ways. Shepherd’s gonna burn guys, Butler’s gonna Moss guys and not get tackled, and Ateman’s gonna turn the field into his own circus.
I promise you this: if the Battlehawks target Jake Sutherland he’ll end up scoring. Maybe not on his first catch, maybe not on his second catch, maybe later than that, but it will happen. I would absolutely LOVE it if AJ picked up where he left off 2 weeks ago when he hit Sutherland 4 times. He is and has been a severely underutilized weapon in this offense and it makes me sad every week.
This Seattle team lost last week after a 5 game winning streak. They were used to winning and having things go their way. When their defense started getting burnt last week, they started to panic. DBs started making really really bonehead decisions and they were getting all kinds of big and poorly timed penalties. They had 8 penalties for 127 yards, and a good amount of those were DPIs.
If the Battlehawks can put points on the board quickly, they’ll be able to butcher the defensive backfield like the little pigs they are.
The problem here is going to be protection.
Yes, this offensive line has been putting together some good games, pass protection-wise. It’s a really good thing to see. BUT this Seattle defensive front is pretty good. If you look at the defense’s numbers, they’re not tremendous (16 sacks, 37 TFLs, and 19.5 points per game), but you can say the same thing about the Battlehawks’ defense.
Seattle is going to throw a lot of pressure at AJ to make him get the ball off quickly. They don’t have a whole lot of exotic pressures, but they use their linebackers pretty effectively. What stands out to me the most is their delayed blitzes. I can’t remember which game or games it was, but I do distinctly remember the Battlehawks’ offensive line having trouble picking those up. Again, this O-line is much better now, but I still think those blitzes will be impactful.
The biggest thing for this game is going to be protecting the ball. If the Battlehawks win the turnover battle, they’ll win this game. Brian Hill can be an issue, but Seattle’s quarterback holds onto the ball just about as badly as anyone ever has.
Battlehawks’ Defense v. Sea Dragons’ Offense
Ben DiNucci has fumbled 5 times this year. They’re not strip sacks either. If there’s one thing Ben loves more than fumbling it’s bailing the pocket and running. When he does that, it looks like it’s his first time running. He’s gawky, lumbering, loose, and somehow fast. It makes no sense.
Listen, he’s going to be productive on his legs, but when he does tuck it, he needs to get punished. If he gets smashed when he’s on his own, it’s just a matter of time until he fumbles. If the D line can get in Ben DiNucci’s head, he’ll start to panic, sense phantom pressure, and do that thing where a quarterback rolls out 15 yards deep.
If Ben doesn’t get popped, he’s pretty good at scramble drills. Remember how he had Josh Gordon in week 2 and never really used him? Well, he’s using Josh Gordon now and it’s scary. He’s also got that quick little guy, Jahcour Pearson. In week 2 he burned the entire defense on a 50-something-yard catch and run. He’s still doing that. Pearson’s leading the XFL in receptions with 50. The ball is going to come his way, and he needs to get buried as soon as he gets it. He’s good and shifty when he’s flat-footed and he has a 3rd, 4th, and 5th gear when he catches the ball on the run.
In week 2, Gordon got held to 1 catch for 33 yards and Pearson got held to 4 catches for 78 yards. This defensive backfield’s going to need to try to get a repeat of those numbers. That’s tough, because like I said, Seattle knows their identity now, and they know those 2 receivers are a BIG part of it.
Seattle thrives on big plays. They don’t normally have those big prolonged 10+ play drives. Last week we saw the defense crack down on QB runs and limit how effective they were. They need to keep that train rolling. We’ve also seen these DBs be pretty weak on pass coverage against intermediate throws. They need to derail that train if they want to get off the field on 3rd downs. The Battlehawks can’t have another game where they allow a team to have a +40% 3rd down conversion rate.
Now for the running backs.
Seattle has Phillip Lindsay now. Phillip Lindsay was a Pro Bowl runningback for the Denver Broncos… back in 2018… when he was 23. That was a long time ago and runningbacks don’t age well. I’m not saying he’s bad. He’s just not an elite powerhouse.
Before last week’s game, Lindsay said he wanted to play in the XFL to get back in shape so he can make an NFL roster in the fall. And let me tell you something…
He’s not in football shape.
Last week he had to sit out a lot, like, a lot a lot because he was tired. That’s a really good thing because that means he can’t get rolling. He’s a bowling ball of a running back, so when he does get rolling it’s hard to stop. He’s pretty explosive through the line with really quick feet, so getting him jammed up behind the line of scrimmage is going to be really important early on because that’s when he’s going to be at his strongest. That’s a nice thing to see especially knowing how good running backs, like Abram Smith, get stronger as games go on.
Prediction
Seattle is built to score fast and they know they can do just that. Normally I would say that a game is going to come down to the trenches, especially when I’m talking about a team that wants to throw deep. I think this game is going to be heavily impacted by linebacker play. If the Battlehawks can get Travis Feeney some shots on Ben DiNucci, good things will happen. If the Battlehawks can get Carson Wells moving fast and closing the distance on receivers and on Ben DiNucci when he scrambles, good things will happen. If Willie Harvey stays in a position to limit YAC on receivers who have big YAC potential, good things will happen. On defense, the Battlehawks simply cannot trust their defensive backs to play lights out against really good wide receiver talent, especially with Nate Meadors and Jon Alexander being questionable for the game.
On offense, they’ll need to score. Can’t do none of that, “get a turnover then have a 3 & out” crap. They’ve scored less than 20 points off of 17 takeaways this season. When they get good field position, they need to step on the gas and make Seattle play like dumb stupid idiots.
Unfortunately, I still think this is a close game. The Battlehawks are 1 point favorites right now.
28-25 Battlehawks win.