First of all, Go Birds.
Chiefs @ Eagles (Eagles -1, O/U 51).
This is a weird game because it’s just one guy on the Chiefs.
Yeah, they have Travis Kelce, but he’s not the deep threat he used to be. This year he hit a career-low average depth of target at 6.89 yards. He hasn’t lost that shiftiness after the catch, so it’s really going to be on CJGJ, Marcus Epps, TJ Edwards, Kyzir White, Avonte Maddox, and potentially Darius Slay to finish their tackles, which is, unfortunately, something they haven’t been lights-out at this year, but I trust they’ll be able to minimize him. Hell, they did it to Gronk in Superbowl LII.
It’s just Mahomes, and that’s absolutely horrifying.
The Eagles’ defensive backfield is a legit prison for wide receivers. The Chiefs have Mahomes.
The Eagles’ linebackers have played much better than anyone thought they would. The Chiefs have Mahomes.
The Eagles’ defensive line is the first defensive line in the history of the sport to have 4 guys with double-digit sacks. The Chiefs have Mahomes.
The Eagles’ offensive line is arguably the best offensive line in the history of the sport. The Chiefs have Mahomes.
The Eagles have one of the best wide receiver duos in the league with 2 certified WR1s. The Chiefs have Mahomes.
The Eagles’ roster is, without a doubt, much better, but that Mahomes factor is just a kick in the dick. I know he’s technically hurt, but I don’t think that matters. If you were an Alien with no idea about human injuries and you watched the AFC Championship game, you wouldn’t have thought Mahomes had a leg issue until very late in the 3rd quarter.
The leg is just not a factor.
Of course, I’m picking the Eagles and it’s clearly a Homer pick, but if you’re looking this at a percentage play I’d put it like this.
Birds to win by double-digit points: 40% chance
Chiefs to win in a close game: 30% chance
Birds to win in a close game: 20% chance
Chiefs to win by double-digit points: 10% chance
I feel like that’s realistic.
Eagles ML (-120)
Another pick I’m taking is Eagles O 27.5 points.
In 93 games that Patrick Mahomes has played, he’s been within 1 score in the 4th quarter in 20 of them. That’s a bonkers stat.
The Eagles have a script they try to follow every game. Pass in the first half to build a lead, then they run their dicks off to kill the game. It’s very simple.
They’re smart enough to know the Mahomes factor. I don’t think they’re going to be able to keep that same script in this game. Yeah, there'll be a shit load of running, but I don’t think it’s going to be there to shorten the game. They’ll be putting up plenty of points and I don’t think 4 touchdowns are going to be hard to get to.
Eagles O27.5 (+120)
The last one I’m taking is Kenny Gainwell O21.5 rushing yards.
I’m not a huge Kenny G guy because the Eagles do this thing where they have plays that are schemed for him to get the ball when they have 3 other and better playmakers on the field. It’s very frustrating for me.
But he’s been great this postseason. He’s had 26 carries for 160 yards (6.2 yards/carry).
I know I said that there wouldn’t be the same huge number of runs in this game as there has been all season, but if the Chiefs are smart, they’re going to prioritize Jalen Hurts’ legs on RPOs. That means there’ll be a good number of gives to runningbacks and Kenny clearly has the potential to break some off.
Kenny G O21.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
GO BIRDS.