Bears @ Lions (Lions -6, OU 53)
Okay, I understand that these two teams have the capability of scoring a lot. I get that the Lions have guys that can make big plays and a defense that can be absolute shit. I get that the Bears have Justin Fields who can play like a madman and he can throw a ball that is magnetically attracted to Cole Kmet’s hands and magnetically repealed from his other receivers’ hands. I get that the Bears’ defense play like they’re hemophiliacs.
I get it. I get all of it.
But 53 points? We’re expecting at least 7 touchdowns from these teams? We’re expecting pretty much no long, drawn-out drives that result in a field goal? We’re expecting 3-12 a team that runs the ball more than half the time to be even moderately effective against a team that actually does have a pretty good run defense?
On that note, I’m not taking anything away from Detroit totally pissing themselves against the Panther’s rushing game last week. They’re only allowing 133ish rushing yards a game, but last week was 320 yards. That’s an outlier, and we don’t care about that even a little bit.
To get to 53, these two teams are going to have to be firing all on cylinders on offense. I know they were when they played last time, but that was also in week 10. We’re almost 2 months later and 2 months more worn out.
I’m taking the under because “In week 17, the 3-12 Bears and 7-8 Lions combined for 54 points” is a dumb sentence that I’m willing to bet against.
U 53
Vikings @ Packers (Packers -3.5, O/U 47.5)
The Packers have been considerably better in the past month. Almost makes you think that the early season trust issues that Rodgers had with his receivers isn’t necessarily the case anymore. They’ve won and covered their last 3 games. I’m not knocking them for not trying to get everything back on track.
But.
The Vikings just seem to get it done. It doesn’t make sense, it just happens.
I have nothing to go on with this play, but if I can get the Vikings with points against a team that they absolutely dismantled earlier this year (again, I know that early-season Packers are not late-season Packers) I’m going to take those points and hold onto them. This game is going to be a real rollercoaster and I will never feel confident, but that’s the play.
Vikings +3.5
Steelers @ Ravens (Steelers -2, O/U 35)
Did you know that these two teams are booty butt? We’re looking at a team scoring 12 points and a team scoring 17 points per game in their last 3 games. We’re looking at a team allowing 12 points and a team allowing 14 points per game in their last 3 games. We’re looking at a January AFC North divisional game. I would normally say that we’re looking at one of the most boring games of the season, but we’ll still have that Colts/Broncos Thursday Night game from week 5.
U 35. Score Prediction 14-12 and I don’t know who’s who.