I’m an unlovable piece of trash and you’re an unlovable piece of trash, so you gotta level with me here: I messed up. Yes, it’s Saturday. Is this technically “Too Early”? No, but also yes. These times are uncertain, and in that uncertainty, our perception of time has been shot to shit. I normally write these on Sundays and Mondays. There was a game on Tuesday as well, so like, cut me a break goddammit. Did I get drunk watching Troy on Tuesday night and fall asleep only to have to rewatch it on Wednesday? Yes of course I did. That has a lot to do with why this is late. Did I tell myself I was going to do it on Thursday? Duh. Did I? Duh, but in this case, no. So fuck off.
There’s only one thing that we can base our worth off of, and that’s how good our NFL picks are.
Last week I went,
*Jake goes back to last week’s picks to see how it went, sees that he was 2-4*
Fuck me. Why are you reading this? These picks are bullshit. Maybe writing it later will help me? Maybe fading myself will work?
All right let's be Sharps and do this. Let’s turn it all around. I’m sorry for hostility in advance.
Sunday Early:
Texans 1-4 @ Titans 4-0 (Titans -3.5, OU 53.5)
Everyone slow clap for the Texans. They won a game. cOnGraTuLaTiOnS. They beat the Jags 30-14. I had an overweight dog with gangrene when I was a kid, and that dog could beat the Jags 30-14 by herself (RIPower Daisy). My parents had a pregnant mini longhorn that died in labor (RIPower Fern). That cow could have beat the Jags 30-14. The Texans are an overweight-gangrenous-dead-mini-cow hybrid of a team that should be banished from this material plane that we call existence.
The Titans, on the other hand, are undefeated. They had a defense that showed up last week against a high powered Bills offense, which is the best they’ve looked this season. They’re causing interceptions ( 6, making them ranked #2 in the league) and recovering fumbles (3, making them ranked #7 in the league) they’re getting touchdowns in the RedZone (82.4% of the time) and a running back who is averaging 94 yards per game.
The Texans? Well, they’ve forced 2 turnovers this year, and that’s it (they’re actually ranked last in the league there). They convert 3rd downs a WHOPPING 38% of the time and get a touchdown in the RedZone 53% of the time. Their leading rusher is averaging 58 yards per game.
Why is rushing important for this game? That’s easy: the Texans have allowed the second most rushing yards this season.
The only thing driving this line down is the super duper short week for the Titans. They’re playing on 4 days rest. My response to that is simple: They’re professional athletes. They have a training staff that is meant to whip the players back into playing shape. Maybe they don’t get the best game plan set up, but 3.5 points? Get outta here with that shit.
Titans -3.5. Cash it.
Sunday Late:
Jets 0-5 @ Dolphins 2-3 (Dolphins -9, OU 47)
I’ll drink 4 ounces of my own piss if the Jets cover.
Sunday Night Football:
Rams 4-1 @ 49ers 2-3 (Rams -3, OU 51.5)
If this wasn’t a Primetime game, I’d treat it like the abnormal mole on my back and just ignore it.
The 49ers might be awful. Their only 2 wins came against the Jets and the Giants, and they lost to the Cardinals, Eagles, and Dolphins. I mean… What can you take away from that? Yeah, they’ve had 6 turnovers in their last 2 games and they’re only converting 42% of 3rd downs, but that was when they had 13 people on the IR. Now they get Deebo Samuel, Raheem Mostert, and like 5 other guys back. Does that mean anything to their actual performance? Fuck if I know. Will they stay with the trend of turning the ball over? You bet your sweet ass they maybe probably will.
The Rams have a good... Nay, GREAT pass Defense. Through 5 games, they’ve allowed less than 1000 passing yards and allow an average of 4.9 yards per pass attempt. SHEESH. They’ve only allowed 90 points so far this season, while they’ve scored 136. This is a pretty good team.
Here’s the thing: I like the Rams in this spot, which is why I’m going to take the 49ers. I don’t trust me.
It seems too good to be true. It seems like the Rams should shut down the 49ers fairly easily, which means they won’t.
Listen, I’m just as confused as you are.
49ers +3 and/or U51.5.
Monday Night Football:
Chiefs 4-1 @ Bills 4-1 (Chiefs -4.5, OU 57.5)
I can sit here and tell you that I don’t eat Cheerios because I feel that eating something with “O” will make Overs hit. I won’t tell you that because I’m not a liar. I know I said it last time, but I’m serious this time. This game... THIS is the over of the century.
Buffalo is 4-0-1 against the over (averaging 9.5 points over the total). KC is 2-3 against the over (averaging .9 points under the total). Obviously the KC aspect is not optimal, but it’s still pretty damn good.
Just for posterity:
Both teams have an average drive time of less than 3 minutes and 10 seconds and they’re getting a touchdown 72% of the time they are in the Red Zone.
You know this is going over, I know this is going over, my dog knows this is going over. It’s going over. If we say it enough times, they won’t even have to play the game, they’ll just cash all the over tickets. Over.
Over.
Over.