No one should be allowed to feel the emotions I feel on a day-to-day basis. Yes, the Eagles won. I don’t care who they played or how banged up that team was, all I know is that the Eagles won a goddamned game. For that, I am incredibly thankful. Did I place a bet on Eagles Over 7.5 for the first quarter? Yes. Did Doug Pederson go for 2 out of nowhere? Yes. Did that cash? Fuck yes. Did my Too Early picks for this last weekend do well? Well no, not really. I was 2-3. That’s unacceptable. I let you all down. I am regretful, sad, and downright disgusted with myself. That being said, I was 2-1 ATS and 0-2 for totals.
Enough of that. As President Benjamin Franklin said before he fell off a mechanical bull, “The buck stops here.”
6-0. Right here. These picks. Guaranteed.
Thursday Night Football:
Buccaneers 3-1 @ Bears 3-1 (Buccaneers -5.5, OU 44)
Here’s the thing that people forget: The Bears stink like butts. Yeah, they’re 3-1, but those 3 wins were against the Giants (doo-doo butt team), the Falcons (doo-doo butt team), and the Lions (still a doo-doo butt team). They lost to the Colts, a team that absolutely no one has any idea about.
Here’s the thing about the Buccaneers: they’re kind of not bad. Last weekend they came out of the locker room in the second half and peed all over the Chargers. They also won very handedly in week 2 and 3. Nothing crazy about what’s happened so far for them.
Let’s take a minute to rationalize this play:
Say your skull has a brain in it. Take that brain, and throw it away. Fill your skull with an actual piece of dog shit. Take a look at Tom Brady laying 5.5 points to a bad Bears team. Place a bet on Bears +5.5.
Betting on the Bears is something a shit brained moron would do. We fade them. We’ll always fade them.
Tampa Bay -5.5 is the play here. Start the week off 1-0.
Sunday Early:
Cardinals 2-2 @ Jets 0-4 (Cardinals -7, OU 47)
Remember how Adam Gase is still a head coach with a roster that looks like it's made up from the Backyard Baseball players that you never used?
Cardinals -7. Congratulations we’re 2-0.
Next game.
Jaguars 1-3 @ Texans 0-4 (Texans -6, OU 54.5)
It’s good that Bill O’Brien was murdered. Now the Texans just have a shitty team instead of a shitty team, a shitty Head Coach, and a shitty General Manager. It almost looks like this Hydra of a terrible organization is going to stop growing back its heads.
The Jaguars, on the other hand, are still using Doug Marrone. Doug Marrone has just about as much business coaching a team as I have business, say... selling tutoring or running supply chains for the world’s largest beer company.
This game is gonna be a toilet. I don’t know what’s going to not happen in this game, but probably a lot.
BUT!
The Texans are 0-4 ATS and I bet streaks.
Jags +6. Now we’re 3-0.
Sunday Late:
Colts 3-1 @ Browns 3-1 (Colts -2.5, OU 47)
The Browns beat the Cowboys 49-38. That’s reality. If you told me that would happen back in June, I would’ve sicked murder hornets on you.
The Browns being a ball hair away from dropping a 50 burger baffled me. It made me go to my model; it made me run some scenarios to see just how big of an outlier that was. I have good news, it wasn’t an outlier. I entered my High School team’s numbers, and ran the simulation 100 times. Every single time my High School team put up 70+ points on the Cowboys because they’re pathetic and always will be. Fuck Dallas.
The point of this whole thing is that the Browns scoring 49 points doesn’t mean anything. Baker threw for less than 180 and Nick Chubb got hurt. The Browns are still a bad team. I’m calling it now. By week 9, they will have smashed the MF panic button.
The Colts defense is great. They’ll stop Baker and his guys. OBJ or Hunt might break one off, but other than that, they’ll be “watching playoffs at a baptism” level quiet.
Colts -2.5. We’re 4-0.
Sunday Night Football
Vikings 1-3 @ Seahawks 4-0 (Seahawks -7, OU 57)
I LIKE THIS GAME.
Last time I said there was going to be a shoot out, I was very wrong. This time though? This time? This time I’m right. Seattle has no defense (they’re giving up 27 points/game) and neither does Minnesota (they’re giving up 31 point/game). 57 is the total? Smash that right now, because that’s going to go UP UP UP.
Why is that going to go up? Here’s why:
People lose a lot of bets throughout the day on Sunday (not us). Then they try to bail out their losses on Sunday Night Football. Everyone is going to see these defense’s numbers and hammer the over. Books are going to raise that number so they can win.
Get 57 now. Sit back, relax, and rake in the cash.
Want a double pick?
The Dolphins just scored 23 on Seattle. Minnesota has a better offense than Miami. Minnesota’s Team Total is 23.5. Smash that too.
Over 58 and Vikings TT Over 23.5.
Monday Night Football
Chargers 1-3 @ Saints 2-2 (Saints -7.5, OU 51)
This year the Saints are the Ginyu force of the NFL. All the hype and only one player had a stand out performance.
IF Michael Thomas plays, I imagine he’ll be quiet. It would be his first game back from an injury, and I think he wouldn’t get a full workload.
The Chargers have just been the Chargers. Nothing really stands out all that much. This will be Justin Herbert’s first MNF game, and as a Rookie I think it’ll get to him. Austin Ekler is out 4-6 weeks and I think that’s going to put a lot of pressure on the QB.
This is a classic “don’t overthink it” game.
Saints -7.5. 6-0 for the week. Spend the money now because you’ll have it by next week.
...Or fade me and fuck you.