Daniel Jones ran himself into the ground. Joe Judge (the former New England Special Teams coach) didn’t capitalize on an opportunity to fake a punt. Carson Wentz is clutch in the 4th quarter. Those are the things that matter. Not the score. Not the terrible blocking. Not the terrible use of a 2nd round pick. Nothing. All that matters is that the Eagles won. Did I say they were going to cover? Beats me. There’s literally no way of looking that up. LET’S NOT DWELL ON THE PAST. How’s abouts we rip some dicks off and win money today? Good, let’s go!
Sunday Early
Packers 4-1 @ Texans 1-5 (Packers -3.5, OU 56.5)
I’ve only been in a fight one time. It was in the seventh grade and I lost. I was 95 pounds. I was year 5 into my tenure with braces. My favorite song was Black Betty by Spiderbait. I was DEEP into Bionicles. My favorite non-lego toy was a wooden sword I got from a renaissance fair. I could (as still can) fuck your shit up in Battlefront 2. I was the 5th string cornerback on my football team.
Seventh grade me could cover 3.5 against the Texans.
Houston is 1-5 ATS. They’ve allowed the most rushing yards and the most rushing yards per attempt (5.4) in the NFL. Through all of this, their defense is ranked 31st in allowed Yards per Drive (43 yards).
Greenbay’s defense should match up pretty well against Houston’s offense. Greenbay’s defense has the highest rate of 3-and-outs (27.5%) and Houston's offense has the ranked 26th for their rate of 3-and-outs (23.7%).
The bottom line here is that Aaron Rodgers lost last week, embarrassingly. He’s going to come back with a vengeance. The Texans lost last week, heartbreakingly. They’re gonna come out flat and get behind and not come back.
Green Bay -3.5.
Bills 4-2 @ Jets 0-6 (Bills -10.5, OU 45.5)
If the Jets cover, I’ll drink 4 ounces of my dog’s piss.
Sunday Late:
Chiefs 5-1 @ Broncos 2-3 (Chiefs -8, OU 44.5)
Maybe I’m crazy: Do I wash all of my clothes in cold water? Yes.
Do I only go to the Dentist once every 6 years? Yes.
Do I get a car wash every week? Yes.
Do I wear my contacts 3 months after they’ve expired? Yes.
Do I clean my sneakers every time I wear them? Yes.
Do I spend $300 a month watering my lawn. Yes.
Do I think Denver will cover? Yes.
70% chance of snow. 21 degrees. Those are the only numbers that benefit the Broncos.
My thought here is that KC has not been blowing teams out of the water, and in a game whose O/U is 44.5, 8 points is a lot of goddamn points, and I just don’t think that’s going to happen. I think that there will be a lot of dropped balls and broken tackles, but I think that’s going to happen on both sides of the ball.
Give me Denver +8. BOL.
Sunday NIght Football
Seahawks 5-0 @ Cardinals 4-2 (Seahawks -3.5, OU 55.5)
How dare they make this the Sunday night game? It’ll be like trying to go to bed after watching Endgame. This is going to be exciting until the very end. The Seahawks have a super duper offense and a stupid-bad defense, and the Cardinals have a maybe probably possibly high powered offense and a kind of good defense. What more can you ask for in a nightcap?
The Cardinals and the Seahawks are amazing in the RedZone, getting touchdowns 80% and 88% of the time they get there (the two best in the NFL). The Cardinals have the most rushing touchdowns in the NFL (11) and the Seahawks have the most passing touchdowns in the NFL (19).
All of this is great, but!
We know what Russell Wilson does in Prime Time: He wins. He wins close games. Week 3 vs the Patriots, 35-30, a 1 score game. Week 5 vs the Vikings, 27-26, 1 score game. I REALLY think this is going to be another one of those, and 3 plus the hook is really getting me hot and bothered. Like seriously, I gotta go take care of this.
Alright, I’m back.
Cardinals +3.5.
Monday Night Football
Bears 5-1 @ Rams 4-2 (Rams -5.5, OU 45)
Nick Foles Revenge game?
NICK FOLES REVENGE GAME!
Do you know that the Rams only wins are against the NFC East? I do, and I think It’s going to stay that way for a minute. Throw out those 4 games, and we’re looking at a 32-35 loss to the Bills and a 16-24 loss against a defense-less 49ers. SHEESH.
They haven’t been able to get an offense going this entire month. Oh, that 30-10 win against WFT?
SlowJerk.gif.
The Bears have the best RedZone Defense in the league, allowing touchdowns only 36.4% of the time, and 14 of the Rams 19 touchdowns this year have been in the RedZone. Again, a lot of those Redzone attempts came against 4 of the worst teams in the League. So against an actual defense? They’re soooooo fucked.
The Bears’ offense isn’t any good either, though. They’re ranked like 25+ in like, every metric imaginable. They’ll throw the ball. They’ll work slowly. They’ll wait until they get a turnover, take the lead and grind it out.
Bears +5.5, Under 45 in this snoozefest.