2/23/23 8 pm Central
FX and ESPN+, and whatever other site you want to get a stream from
STL @ SEA (SEA -3, O/U 37)
We got ourselves a short week.
Battlehawks’ Offense
Buddy, this is going to be a tough one. We’re looking at an offensive line that had an all-time garbage performance in week 1. Yeah, more time and more reps playing next to each other is going to help them play better together, but I have 2 issues with that:
It’s only been 4 days
They played bad individually
If the Battlehawks want to minimize how bad their front 5 guys are playing they can run counters, off-tackle runs, and use their tight ends and runningbacks for extra protection. It’s stuff they didn’t do in week 1, and it would give them the help that they DESPERATELY need. Again, it won’t completely stop the rush, but it can at least stop your eyes from bleeding and maybe alleviate the potential for aneurysms for everyone watching. We don’t want deaths due to frustration towards an XFL game. It’s not worth it.
What sucks is that the Hybrid West Coast Offense that the Battlehawks run is essentially an offense that needs the passing game to work for the running game to work.
They have receivers that can play and play well. I want to see more of Marcell Ateman and Hakeem Butler getting priority on throws since they are super big and super physical. Give Austin Proehl more playing time than Darius Shepherd and give him option routes since he has shown that he consistently finds soft spots in zone coverage.
If they want a chance in their running game, they need to use the runningbacks to their individual strengths. That would be using Brian Hill as much as possible because he’s the most complete, using Mateo Durant on screens and spots where he’ll have room to work and make people miss, and don’t use Kareem Walker at all because he’s never opened his playbook.
If that offensive line can’t get it together, AJ McCarron’s Doomsday clock is going to get even closer to midnight and he’s going to get broken into tiny little pieces in front of his family.
Sea Dragons’ Defense
In week 1, this defense held DC’s offense to 177 total yards and 16 points (DC scored on a pick 6).
The front 7 had a pretty consistent pass rush and made sure they got touches on the quarterback, and that’s obviously going to be an issue for the Battlehawks this game. That being said, they didn’t get any sacks. A lot of that was due to DC’s heavy run game and the quarterbacks throwing the ball, so if McCarron can keep his composure, and he’s shown that he can, the Battlehawks may be able to minimize the negative plays in the passing game instead of allowing 5 sacks like they did in week 1.
The defensive backs got picked on and they’re vulnerable to bigger receivers making physical catches. They allowed 10.3 yards per catch and they missed a couple of interceptions, including a hilarious one where two defenders ran into each other like the 3 Stooges and the ball hit the ground between them. It was very funny, and it only intensified my love for football. The Cornerbacks were very patient in the flats, so the short passing game to the outside is going to have to be pretty precise in order for it to work. I saw a few times where the linebackers got frozen by motion, so the Battlehawks might be able to use that to free guys up for easier completions. This team can be beaten deep and there will be spots where tight ends are open on deep seams. It really depends on if McCarron has the time to get the ball there.
The running game is a little different. These guys up front are big and can swallow up runningbacks. DC was a run-heavy offense and only got an average of 2.5 yards on 39 carries. This defensive line was making their tackles and finishing them and the linebackers were getting in the backfield to get opportunities for TFLs on a pretty regular basis. The longest run they allowed was 11 yards. If the Battlehawks are going to have a chance to run the ball effectively, they’re not going to do it in between the tackles, they’re going to have to bounce outside and make the aggressive linebackers miss.
The only time Seattle’s defense really showed weakness was when DC ran tempo on them. And buddy… I don’t have faith that the Battlehawks are going to be able to do that.
Sea Dragons’ Offense
You know how AJ McCarron went into Big Dawg mode at the end of the game on Sunday? Seattle’s QB, Ben DiNucci, was juuuuuust about there until he fumbled on the 2-yard line.
Seattle’s offense is mostly good. They have their weaknesses and they are glaring, but they are mostly good. In week 1, they had 331 total yards on offense, 288 of which came from passing and not too many of those yards came from designed deep passes either. They have two dangerous receivers, Josh Gordon and this other guy named Jahcour Pearson.
Josh Gordon is a guy that we knew was going to make plays. He was an All-Pro wide receiver in the NFL but never had a huge career because he looooves weed and the NFL hates guys like that. He plays smart, he’s got great hands, and he’s huge. He’s going to line up on the outside and give the corners hell the whole night.
It’s this Pearson guy that’s the bigger problem to me. He’s just a tiny little guy that can absolutely MOVE. He ran a 4.2 40-yard dash, and it absolutely shows. He caught 12 balls for 95 yards, and his deepest reception was maybe 8 yards past the line of scrimmage. He was making guys miss and burnt people on the outside. It’s going to be very very very important for whoever is covering the flats to make sure that when they get a hand on Pearson, that he goes down without a doubt.
When DiNucci gets pressured, he can scramble and has an arm to get the ball downfield. That’s something that’s both good and bad for the Battlehawks because he’s either looking for and hitting Josh Gordon for 20 yards, or he’s being ridiculously careless with the ball and giving the defense a chance to make a play. The latter is exactly what he did twice against DC and one of them was for a pick 6.
Their running back, Knox, was really the only guy that they had any rushing production with. He had 11 carries for 31 yards and a 13-yard touchdown. He didn’t look bad especially when he ran to the outside where he could bounce off of smaller defensive backs, but he is on the injury report with a hurt hand, so we’ll have to see what’s going on with him. I’m not too worried about the running game because the Battlehawks’ DBs showed that they can play big. But then again, we’ve got a small sample size, so who knows how they look this week.
2 other things that are important to note:
This is an aggressive offense; they want to go for it on 4th down and they are going to go for 3 whenever they score. So there are going to be chances for big defensive plays.
DiNucci got blasted over and over and over and over again on Sunday. The short week means he’s going to have less time to recover. It’s going to pay dividends for the defense to make sure he hits the ground early and often.
Battlehawks Defense
In week 1, the Battlehawks' defense did a tremendous job of putting the game on Jack Coan’s shoulders and forcing him to make a play. Like I said, that opportunity is going to be there again this week. If they can make DiNucci get uncomfortable, and they should, they’ll be able to get in spots to make the same kinds of big plays DC did.
The DBs did a great job of keeping passes in front of them, limiting the big plays, and showing up in the Red Zone. If they can rinse and repeat they’re going to be able to give the offense good opportunities to score on short fields.
Prediction:
I have no faith in this offensive line and you shouldn’t either. I think the amount of pressure and the lack of sacks Seattle got last week were an anomaly. I think McCarron not getting close to a full week’s recovery is going to get to him and it’s going to show after he gets put on the ground a handful of times. I imagine this being another really really frustrating game on offense.
I don’t think DiNucci’s going to be great either. He’s going to buckle under pressure as he’s done his entire professional career, and give the ball to the Battlehawks’ defense in some really really bad spots.
Short weeks hurt everyone.
In my heart: STL Wins 12-9
In my brain: SEA Wins 18-15