I’m trying to be careful this weekend because these number 1 seeds always get undervalued in the divisional round. Everyone saw the Jags and the Giants play last week so they’re going to get recency bias, especially when they play the way they did during their Wildcard games.
Jaguars @ Chiefs (Chiefs -9.5 O/U 53)
Just gonna throw some records from this year out there and see how they look:
The Jags are 9-9 ATS and the Chiefs are 6-10-1 ATS.
In the last 10 games, the Jags are 7-3 ATS and the Chiefs are 3-6-1 ATS.
The Jags are 8-5 as dogs and the Chiefs are 5-9-1 as favorites.
That looks really nice and certainly gives you some good vibes toward the Jags, but dammit do the Chiefs show up in the postseason. Their playoff record is 7-4 ATS in the Mahomes era. 9.5 points are so many points, but it could easily be 11 points and I could be convinced that’s still too low.
But the Jags, man. They got some magic and good vibes going right now.
I don’t see the Jags actually winning this one because Andy Reid is too good after a bye week, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jags lose by 2 or if they lose by 20.
I love this game because they are both Ex-Eagles head coaches, but one (maybe) overlooked thing for Doug Pederson is that he gets his teams to play their best in the postseason.
I have no choice but to Stan my Superbowl coach and go with the Jags.
Jags +9.5
Giants @ Eagles (Eagles -7.5 O/U 48)
Go Birds, first of all.
At the beginning of the season, I looked at the Eagles/Cowboys game on Christmas and saw that it was going the be the 3rd road game in a row and that it was going to be on a short week (only by one day since it was on a Saturday, but still a short week). It’s hard for teams to win that 3rd road game in a row.
The Giants? This is their 3rd road game in a row.
Oh, what’s that? This is a short week for them (only by one day since it’s on a Saturday, but still a short week).
Go Birds.
I don’t like to bet sides on Eagles games. It makes me uneasy and I’ve never been an “Emotional Hedge” guy. If the Eagles lose, I prefer to have no emotion other than sadness and blind rage. I know I’m not perfect, but it works for me.
As far as sides go, facts are facts. The Giants are great at covering this year. They’re 11-2 as dogs and they’ve covered 8 of their last 10 games. However, one of those games they didn’t cover was when they got BF’d by the Eagles in week 14. Take from that what you will.
One of the plays I’m going to make here is Boston Scott Anytime TD.
Boston is our Short King. 10 of his 17 career touchdowns have come against the Giants and in his 8 games against the Giants, he’s rushed for 414 yards. Somehow the man is an absolute psychopath when it comes to playing against the Giants. No one can explain it, but I love him and I love this play.
My other play is Eagles TT O. I grabbed it at 27.5. They’re averaging 28.1 points per game for the season and 22 points in their last 3 games. Those games were Garder Minshew against the Cowboys, Minshew against the Saints, and Hurts (playing with one hand purposefully tied behind his back) against the Giants. I fully expect the Eagles to get right back to business on offense and put the hammer down before halftime.
Eagles TT O 27.5
Go Birds