I’m not an ESPN insider nor do I have any professional experience in the sports world. That being said, I was a 3 sport athlete in high school, and one time I ran a 4.4 40, but that was before I broke both of my legs in similar, yet wildly different football accidents.
So,
Do I know what I’m talking about? Yes.
Am I always right? 60% of the time.
And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the key number.
I’m 9-5 this NFL season, and I want to share my wisdom with you.
Let’s get into WEEK 3 BABY
Dolphins 0-2 @ Jaguars 1-1 (Jags -3.0, O/U 47.5):
If you’ve had wet dreams about watching steroid era mid-lineup baseball players playing Tee Ball. You’ll love this game.
It’s gonna be all debatably decent offense and no defense.
Everything points to this game being a shoot out. Jags put up 27 and 30 against mediocre defenses from the Colts and Titans, and the Dolphins put up 31 last week against the Bills. Yes, they only scored 11 points against the Pats, but the Pats defense is formidable, not great, but formidable.
Passes are completed at a 72% rate against the Dolphins defense, and they are allowing 9.7 yards per pass and 5 yards per run. 2020 might suck for you, but at least you don’t average a first down per pass completion against you. Count your blessings.
On the flip side of that, passes are completed at a 77% rate against the Jaguars defense, and they are allowing 8.2 yards per pass and 3.8 yards per run. Even with the low YpC, third downs are a coin flip. Teams are converting 50% against the Jags. That’s what a coin flip means.
Dolphins are passing just under 60% of the time, and Jags just above 50%. Those numbers aren’t a perfect match up, but they’re still McDonalds, because I’m lovin’ it.
The point is, all of these numbers are great to see. We’re not going to just take O47.5. We’re going to drive 75 in a 25, pull out our phone so we can change the song to Black Betty by Spiderbait, accidentally drop it between the seat and the console, reach really far down to pick it up, only be able to grab a corner of it, have it slip out of our hand making it even harder to reach, and smash into the back O47.5 while it’s stopped behind a school bus killing everyone involved.
O47.5 is the play. If you want a side: Jags probably win by 9 i guess?