Listen, last week I goofed. I made mistakes. One mistake was assuming that Gardner Minshew was going to be competent. He missed a shot downfield that an armless Black Knight could make. It was gut wrenching, frightening, and sad.
The second mistake I made was thinking I could actually do a write up of every game on the slate. Turns out there were an unpredictably large number of games. I was able to write about 8 games, and it took me a shameful amount of time. So much time that I was not able to actually finish the complete write up and have it be considered “Too Early”. That’s an issue because then I’m not living the bit. I failed myself, but more regrettably I failed you. So here’s the deal. I’m gonna write about Primetime games and interesting (read: valuable) games during the early and late slate.
Let’s get back to it. Let’s wrap our hands in tape, shove them in a bucket full of broken glass, and go beat the shit out of the oddsmakers.
Thursday Night Football:
Broncos 0-3 @ Jets 0-3 (Broncos -2.5, OU 40)
This game is my “Doo Doo Butt, Full Diaper, Sad Face“ Game of the Week. What’s great is that we’re getting this stinker out of the way early on in the week.
That being said:
Denver. Denver Denver. Denver Denver Denver.
I'll get a Jets Tattoo on my face if Denver doesn’t cover 2.5 points in this game. My 5th Grade Football team could cover 2.5 points against the Jets, and we didn’t win a single game that year. Actually, we never got a touchdown the whole year. Shout out to Coach Bob, HC of the Junior Spartans in 2002.
The Jets are next level bad. Sam Darnold had a 12.3 QBR against the Colts. Which is like getting a 12 on the ACT. They’re playing like their tanking, but Adam Gase doesn’t have the mental capacity to throw a game of Candyland against a 2 year old with a learning disability. He doesn’t know how to use Velcro. The man is very much an idiot. It’s truly amazing. I love it.
Denver’s hurting a little bit. A few injuries, but nothing that justifies an insulting -2.5 point handicap.
Hammer Denver -2.5 before it’s gone.
Sunday Early:
Ravens 2-0 @ Washington 0-3 (Ravens -13.5, OU N/A)
13.5 is a lot of points. Like, A LOT of points. I wouldn’t lay 13.5 points in any situation unless it was a concoction of very specific circumstances. That concoction would be a reigning NFL MVP leading an unstoppable offense against a struggling defense that has given up 64 points in the past 2 weeks, mixed with a championship caliber defense that has only allowed 24 points in 2 weeks (0 of which have come from rushing touchdowns). Wait. Holy shit. You guys, that’s this exact situation. I mean, THE EXACT situation. Holy fuck. Welp. I have no choice but to lay 13.5 points.
Psst. Also a great option for a teaser. So jot that down.
Steelers 3-0 @ Titans 3-0 (Titans -1.5, OU 47.5)
Both of these teams have scored 80 total points. One of these teams has let up 74 points the other has let up 58 points. One of these teams allows 5.8 yards per rush the other allows 2.7 yards per rush. Titans are the first one, Steelers are the second one.
Other than those numbers, these teams are performing virtually the same. Given that the Steelers have the edge on those different stats, I have no choice but to take 1.5 points. Their run defense is very stout and I think they’ll be able to shut down Derrick Henry. I don’t trust Ryan Tannehill to make game winning plays, and Big Ben has shown us time and time again that he can do just that.
Steelers +1.5 is the play here. I like the under 47.5 as well. Nothing funny about this one, it should be a good game.
Sunday Late:
Giants 0-3 @ Rams 2-1 (Rams -11.5, OU 48)
This is my “Stop it, Stop it, they’re already dead” game of the week.
11.5 points is a lot of points, but the Saquon-less Giants have about as much bite as a toothless, Feline AIDS riddled, 30 year old cat.
The Giants are sad. Daniel Jones is their leading rusher. They’ve been outscored 79-38. They have a -4 turnover ratio. The Rams are the kind of team that bullies bad teams. They carved up a seemingly good Bills Defense. They’re getting 9.6 yards per pass. All signs point to this being a blood bath. As I do with every decision I’ve ever made, I will not over think this one.
Lay the 11.5 and don’t look back.
Sunday Night Football:
Eagles 0-2-1 @ 49ers 2-1 (49ers -6, OU 43)
Hi. Eagles guy here. I’m sad.
There is absolutely no way you can justify putting hard earned money on a team that is led by a coach who literally punted away a game. That’s the bottom line here. Carson Wentz is playing like an asshole. He’ll scramble and give us glimpses of what he looked like his rookie season, he’ll drop a dime into his top receiver’s hands for a 30 yard gain, he’ll underthrow a screen, and he’ll overthrow a wide open running back, he’ll throw a pass into triple coverage, and he’ll get picked off throwing across the field all in the same drive. He’s just bad. He’s just plain bad. The Defense will smoosh dicks some drives, and other drives they’ll leave the middle open and allow 7 straight completions to the same receiver. Every 7 days this hell repeats itself. It’s a team with no identity, no swagger, and no consistency. I’m not having fun.
The Niners torched the Giants on Sunday. They’re banged up, but they still beat the shit out of a bad team. Why would next Sunday night be any different? I’m never going to bet against the Eagles, so my play for this game is over 43. Both teams are 2-1 in overs, and the 1 under for the Eagles was just under by the hook (OU was 46.5 and the total was 46). Betting the over is the only way this game is interesting.
I am truly sad though. I might do Angel Dust just so I can feel something.
Monday Night Football:
Falcons 0-3 @ Packers 3-0 (Packers -6.5, OU N/A)
The Falcons are like a video on LiveLeak where someone gets killed by an industrial garage door closing on them. They should know better, but you feel sorry for them because they don’t deserve to go out like that.
Green Bay looks unstoppable. Uncle Aaron looks as good as he’s ever looked and he’ll score at will. As a matter of fact, they’ve outscored teams 122-85. (if you can’t see where this play is going, you’re a big ol dummy)
The Falcons are putting up points too. The difference is that they’re sad and pathetic. They’ve been outscored 90-108. They’re banging on the door of 1000 passing yards in just 3 games. They’ve had 7 passing TDs and 3 Rushing TDs. They’re a rabid dog. They’ll be deadly early on, but if you just wait a minute they’ll shit all over the place and fall over dead. Are you thinking what I’m thinking?
“But wait, Jake. You couldn’t possibly be saying that you want to take the over when it hasn’t been posted yet, could you?”
Fuck yes that’s what I’m saying. They can’t make a line high enough for me to bet under. 60 points? Over. 65.5? OVER. 72? OVER BABY OVER OVER OVER. This is going to be Chiefs and Rams in Mexico level scoring, and I AM HERE FOR IT.
Let’s drain our Edward Jones accounts and make so much money we never have to work again. Deal? Deal.