Panthers @ Ravens (Ravens -13, O/U 41)
Baker’s back, you guys. The season’s saved, you guys.
I’m gonna be honest with you, every part of me wants to take the over in this game. Every single part of me.
We’re looking at a Ravens team that is 3-6 to the over, but their lowest Over/Under for the season has been 44. To add to that, the Panthers are 4-6 to the Over, and their Over Unders are much lower.
Here’s why I’m going to take the Under here: The Ravens are going to run the ball, duh, but there are going to be 20 mph winds with 40 mph gusts, so it’s going to take away the Panthers’ passing game. Their passing game is already going to be in shambles because Baker stinks baby.
U 43.5
Raiders @ Broncos (Broncos -2.5, O/U 41)
I like this play. I like this play A LOT, and here’s why:
1. The Broncos’ Unders are 8-1 this year. That one game that went over was against the Raiders when they played back in week 4. That was the only game that the Broncos scored more than 20 points.
2. This is the second time they’re playing this year. They’ll be more familiar with each other, and if we know one thing about Josh McDaniels, his teams only play well when he has experience watching the other team.
3. Raiders' vibes are historically bad right now. We got Carr crying in front of a microphone, we got Davante Adams saying guys aren’t bought in, and we got them on a 3 game-losing streak with no real end in sight.
4. Russell Wilson is maybe calling Seahawks plays on the Broncos' offense? I don’t know if those reports were true, but they sound foolishly believable.
U 41.5
Chiefs @ Chargers (Chiefs -5, O/U 52.5)
Patrick Mahomes can throw the ball to anyone. We know that.
But are his guys talented enough to actually do anything with it?
The biggest change that we’ve seen from last year's Chiefs to this year’s Chiefs is that they’ve gone from doing 2 play-scoring drives that consisted of a 25 yards pass the Kelce and a 50-yard pass to Hill, to 6 play scoring drives that consist of 12 yards passes to 6 different guys.
Pat’s certainly going to make those throws, but he’s running out of guys who are good enough to YAC it up.
The Chargers are getting back Mike Williams and/or Keenan Allen, MAYBE. I think they’re going to try to keep the clock running to get the Chiefs' defense tired. I don’t think that will work for them in the long run, but Branden Staley is a moron, so he’ll probably do it.
Also, Primetime Unders.
U 52.5.