Bills @ Lions (Bills -9.5, O/U 54.5)
We know what’s going to happen.
We know what we want to do here.
We just don’t know if we should.
The Bills’ Average Margin of victory is 10.7 points. When they beat teams, there’s a really good chance that they will stomp them out. Yeah, they only beat the Browns last Sunday by 8 points, but 14 of the Browns' points came in the twilight hours of garbage time.
“But that could happen this week” you might say. Welp, yeah that backdoor possibility is there, but we’re talking about the Lions.
We’re talking about the Lions’ offensive line trying to protect Jared Goff. And we’re talking about Jared Goff really only throwing to Amon-Ra St. Brown. St. Brown has 78 targets on the season. To put that into perspective, the guy who has the second most targets is TJ Hockenson with 43, and he’s been off the team for a couple of weeks. It’s a one-man show.
I get that the Bills’ secondary is janky and messed up right now, but they’re good enough to cover one guy.
Give me Bills to cover a spread that is less than their average MoV
Bills -9.5.
Giants @ Cowboys (Cowboys -10, O/U 45.5)
This line is insulting to the Lions and the Bills.
I get that the Cowboys beat the Vikings by a lot last week, but now they’re laying 10 points in a divisional game against a team that is also 7-3?
Thanks, I guess?
The Cowboys have lost their last 3 Thanksgiving games and they’re 1-10 ATS through their last 11 thanksgiving games. On top of that, the Giants are 7-0 ATS in short rest games in the last 2 years.
This number is crazy high, so here’s what I want:
Give me a game where Saquon goes 125 for 2. Give me a game where the Giants bounce back. Give me a game where Dak plays so poorly that it restarts the Cooper Rush conversation for the 5th time this year. Give me a game where the Cowboys plummet back down to Earth where they belong. Get back in the dirt, you dogs.
Giants +10
Patriots @ Vikings (Vikings -2.5, O/U 42.5)
If the Vikings can score more than 17 points, they can win this game. If they can get to 20, they will cover.
But what’s the bigger power at play here?
Kirk’s talent where he plays like shit in Prime Time?
The Vikings need to get back on track after getting their dicks kicked in on Sunday?
Or a Matt Patricia and Joe Judge offense?
Truly 3 of the biggest forces going head to head against each other.
I think we continue to see the hilarious, tragic, and cartoonish downfall of Mac Jones in this one. I think the Pats' defense does a very good job of making Kirk’s life an absolute living hell for 3 hours, but the Vikings do come out on top.
Vikings -2.5.