Ravens @ Steelers (Steelers -1.5, O/U 36.5)
Every week there has to be a total that is the lowest. It just happens to be this game this week, and rightfully so.
We're looking at an injured Ravens offense and we’re looking at a rookie Quarterback who hasn’t earned even a shred of the benefit of the doubt. We’re not looking at the defenses, because they’re both pretty good.
Lamar Jackson hurt one of his CLs, not sure which one because there are like 20 or something like that. They say he’s doubtful, but as a guy who recently tore his ACL, I can confirm that those CLs are pretty important. Lamar’s going to be out.
Now we get Tyler Huntly again. You can compare him to Lamar. Unfortunately, that comparison is going to be “Not nearly even close to being as good, even kinda.” Last year he started 7 games and went 122/188 for 3 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Yeah, I know that they’re a run-first offense, but even so, that’s not good. Match that level of production up against a healthy Pittsburgh Defense, and he’s probably going to keep not being close to spectacular.
Then we’re looking at Kenny Pickett and the Steelers’ offense. We’re talking about an offense that has scored 19 touchdowns this season. There’s not much more that needs to be said, other than the bottom line:
The Ravens are 8-4 to the under and the Steelers are 7-5 to the under. Make this bet and then don’t watch the game. It’s a mental health play.
U 36.5
Jets @ Bills (Bills -10, O/U 42.5)
Back in week 9, the Jets beat the Bills. The Bills were 10.5-point favorites. This week the Bills are only 10 points favorites. It’s good to see Buffalo is finally getting respect.
I understand things are different for the Jets right now, I get that, but they won that game with Zach Wilson. Say what you will about Mike White, but he’s at least a little better than Wilson.
It wasn’t really the Jets' offense that won them that game though, it was their defense that did. It was the Jets' defense that held the Bills' offense to a season-low 17 points. That’s objectively and/or subjectively impressive. I’m not entirely sure which one of those words is the one that works here, but it’s impressive.
There’s a thought that the Bills should be able to make this a statement game, where they cement themselves at the head of the AFC. I don’t subscribe to that thought. Next week when they play the Dolphins again? Yeah maybe, but this week against one of the best defenses against passing in the league? I’m not banking on that.
If you’re going to give me 10 points in a divisional game, with a defense that has shown that it can at least slow down a top-3 offense, I’m going to take those points, get in the fetal position on my couch, and hope that they don’t do anything stupid on offense to totally fuck away a lead.
Jets +10
Chiefs @ Broncos (Chiefs -9.5, O/U 44)
For like the 12th straight week, we’re going to take an Under in the Broncos’ game because it’s been printing money. Thank you Kansas City for inflating this number.
U 44
Dolphins @ Chargers (Dolphins -3, O/U 53.5)
I don’t know if it was the entire Dolphins team, or if it was just Tua, but someone played like shit last weekend. Luckily, this Chargers defense is just about as polar of an opposite as you can get when you compare them to last week's game against the 49ers.
There should be a lot of opportunities for the Dolphins to throw the ball mega-deep. They’ll bust up the Chargers' sickly run D, take advantage of Derwin James being dead or something, and really pull ahead.
The Chargers have been trying out this thing this year where they have their 2 best wide receivers get hurt. It’s a bold strategy for sure, and it just so happens that it’s been a bad one too. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are both looking like they’re going to play this weekend. That being said, if you look at the historical data of every other game Mike Williams has come back to play in this year, he’ll probably turn his ankle back into jelly after 2 plays.
I can’t find myself having faith in the Chargers’ offense to be consistent enough, early enough in the game to keep this close. Maybe the Chargers do that thing where they throw the ball to Austin Ekeler 15 times on their last drive and give you a scare, but in the end, it’s still the Chargers and they’ll Chargers away another important game.
Dolphins -3