49ers @ Seahawks (49ers -3.5, O/U 43.5)
For a minute there Seattle looked like they might try to give winning the NFC West a real shot.
In order for them to do that they’d have beat the 49ers.
And in order for them to do that, they’d have to score points on the 49ers.
And that... Uh… Well… That’s a tough ask.
The 49ers’ D is playing out their goddamned minds right now. No team has scored more than 17 points on them since before Halloween, and that team was the Chiefs. So, okay, that’s understandable.
The 49ers have allowed 15.2 points per game this season, but I really like looking at things that are more recent. In the last 3 games, the 49ers have allowed 8 points per game. 8. Eight. VIII. 8. What the shit? That’s crazy.
Now, the Seahawks’ offense has been good, so I’m not saying this is going to be a huge blowout or anything (even though it has the potential to be one). They have scored 28.3 points per game in their last 3 games which is notable. What’s also notable is that those last 3 games have been shootouts against teams with very unremarkable defenses. Hypothetically, if you scored 28.3 points in 3 games, and you go 1-2 in those same 3 games, something is horribly wrong with your defense. And would ya look at that? The Seahawks went 1-2 in those 3 games. Yikes.
The Seahawks' defense has allowed 225.7 rushing yards per game in the last 3 games (Panthers, Rams, Raiders). That’s the worst in the NFL in that time span. The 49ers have rushed for 142 yards in that same span against pretty good defenses against rushing (Saints, Phins, Buccs).
My point here is that the Seahawks are going to get gut fucked on the ground, and then potentially through the air as well (I’m not sold on Brock Purdy).
I think the 49ers are going to control this game through and through. Maybe Brock Purdy makes some mistakes since he’s a Rookie playing in a pretty hostile environment in a divisional game. Maybe the Seahawks might get some points and keep it close, but it will never feel like they’re ever in it.
49ers -3.5