Colts @ Vikings (Vikings -4, O/U 48.5)
Whoever is in charge or making the lines for the Vikings is absolutely crushing it. They’re getting evaluated perfectly with a record of 6-6-1 ATS. Hats off to that unfortunate sad sack that has to evaluate them, you’re doing a great job. And because of that single human being’s dominance in their field, I’m gonna stay away from the spread on this one.
The Colts have only scored over 20 points twice this year. One time was against the Raiders on Jeff Saturday’s first game coaching when he put Matt Ryan back in, and the other time was back in week 6 against Jacksonville. They’ve been spectacularly unimpressive on offense.
The Vikings have been probably the weirdest team over since their Bye in week 7. They’re doing everything they can to try to win by the smallest margin, and when it comes to big games, they’re either totally fucked (Philadelphia, Dallas) or they play out of their mind (Buffalo).
It’s 2022, it’s okay for them to be bipolar. It’s going to be a relief when they admit it because right now we’re all just saying it about them and not to them. They’re making it weird for us.
I think Indy’s Defense is going to be able to keep this game boring for the Vikings and Indy’s Offense is going to reciprocate that by being the same old consistent terrible group.
U 48.5 unless Indy starts Nick Foles, which they should do, but won’t.
Ravens @ Browns (Browns -2.5 O/U 37)
Turns out, Lamar Jackson is pretty important to how the Ravens run their team. He hasn’t practiced yet this week. Tyler Huntley got his brain scrambled and he’s still out too. The next guy up is a fella named Anthony Brown. All bad news for the Ravens’ Offense.
Also, Deshaun Watson is playing like an asshole too, which is just a really great thing for everyone. Now he’s going to be potentially playing without Amari Cooper and David Njoku. Might end up being a pretty tough spot for the Browns.
Cleveland’s Offense has scored 13 total points since Deshaun started. Maybe he’ll finally start to shake off the rust, but I believe I speak for everyone when I say this, hopefully he won’t.
The Raven’s offense is hurt, and It’s within reason to think that they won’t be able to do much of anything against a decent Browns’ Defense.
You should watch football all weekend, but if you have some errands to run this game gives you a 3-hour window to do those.
U 37
Dolphins @ Bills (Bills -7 O/U 42)
Miami is in some shit right here.
Okay, so 2 weeks ago the Dolphins played in San Fransisco. They stayed the whole week on the west coast and played in LA. They left the game Sunday night and flew straight to Miami. They get to practice for a few days at home and then they have to fly up to Buffalo to play on Saturday which makes a short week for them. Oh, and it’s going to be 20 degrees, kinda windy, and kinda snowy in Orchard Park on Saturday night. Oh, and also it’s their 3rd straight road game and teams typically don’t do well in those games.
Last week I said that the Bills game against the Jets wasn’t a great spot for them to assert their dominance in the AFC and that this week was. I think this is the perfect spot for the Bills to lay an absolute thumping on the team that beat them earlier in the year when they are weak.
The Chargers came up with a game plan to shut down Tua. I watched a breakdown from their All-22, and it’s not exactly complicated. The general idea is that Tua throws in the deep middle of the field, and you use the secondary to play to the middle. Crazy that it’s that easy to shut an offense down. Will Mike McDaniel be able to come up with something new? Will it matter? Probs not.
This is my favorite play of the week.
Bills -7