Lions @ Jets (Jets -1.5, O/U 44.5)
What’s crazy about this is that Detroit’s Offense is almost a perfect comparison to the Jets’ defense. They’re either shitting the bed completely or playing pretty well so they can bail out their other side of the ball, and it seems like the latter has been happening a lot more frequently. Also, the Jets’ defense is 6th in DVOA and the Lions' offense is 7th in DVOA, so the numbers are there too.
Look at me being kind of smart.
Now the thing here, is that Jared Goff is going to be playing outside this week, and when Jared Goff plays outside Jared Goff plays badly. Two things are notable about that:
1. Jared has thrown 22 touchdowns this year; only one was outside.
2. He averages 210 yards per game outside this season. 272.2 yards per game indoors.
3. It’s week 15 and the Lions have only played 4 games outside. 3 of their next 4 games are outside. Seems like their strong ending of the season might not exactly happen.
I’m only really worried about one aspect of the Lions’ game for this pick, and it’s that they’ve covered 6 games in a row.
My original pick for this game was going to be the Jets laying points, but now that Mike White is out, we’re going under.
U 44.5
Bengals @ Buccs (Bengals -3.5, O/U 44.5)
The Bengals are doing the thing that they did last year, where they start to play really well, and you’re like, “Duh, they have the best WR trio in the league” but then you realize it because their defense is actually a lot better than you would think a Bengals defense should be.
Say, “Bengals’ Defense” out loud.
Feel gross right?
Turns out it's not actually that gross. Depending on how you look at them, they can range from a top 10 defense to a top 6 defense. But what’s important in this game, is that they don’t allow other teams to score in the second half. They’re averaging 8.2 points per game in the second half this year.
What does Tom Brady do? He comes back from the brink and wins games that he was out of.
Not this time Tommy.
Bengals -3.5
Giants @ Commanders (Commies -4.5, O/U 40.5)
Just to put this into perspective:
11/27: Commanders beat the Falcons.
11/28: Victory Monday for the Commanders.
11/29: Commanders’ players start preparing for the Giants.
12/4: Commanders tie the Giants.
12/5: Start if the Commanders’ Bye Week. Start of preparation for Giants… again.
12/11: Commanders’ players watch the Giants/Eagles game. I’m sure they spin this as watching the film.
12/12: Giants start to prepare for the Commanders again. Commanders start their 3rd straight week of preparation for the Giants.
12/18: Commanders play the Giants again for the second time in a row in 3 weeks.
Whereas the Giants had to waste time preparing for a game they had no business dressing for, only to get blown out by 26 points. Now they get to go back to the team that they fucking tied 2 weeks ago.
Superbad vibes for the Giants. Not bad vibes for the Commies, who have had 20 straight days of preparation for this team. This schedule absolutely fucked the Giants.
Commanders -4.5