Bengals @ Patriots (Bengals -3, O/U 41.5)
I’m going to say the same thing about the Bengals this week as I did last week:
The Bengals’ defense doesn’t let people score in the second half. They’ve allowed only 113 points in the second half of games. That’s 8 second-half points per game. And that number is highly skewed by 2 games (Halloween Browns and the Panthers both scored 21 points in the second half).
The Bengals’ offense has been absolutely rolling. I don’t know what happened in that Browns game, but that was the only real dud that they’ve played in semi-recently. They’ve scored 30 or more points in 5 of their last 9 games. They’ve shown that they can win in different ways and with different players, and that’s going to be important here.
We know Belichick is good at shutting down specific parts of offenses. When there is this amount of offensive playmakers, he’s going to have some trouble. I guess it also doesn’t help that his team sucks too.
There is nothing but bad vibes around the Patriots. Mac Jones has done nothing to earn the benefit of the doubt when it comes to short spreads and I think he’s on the verge of phoning it in, which I absolutely do not blame him for. Imagine having the two little angels on your shoulder, but instead of angels, it’s two dipshits named Matt Patricia and Joe Judge calling plays that you hate and know won’t work. When McCorkle gets shut down by the Bengals’ Defense for a few consecutive drives, we’re going to see him get all pissy and give up again.
Bengals -3
Commanders @ 49ers (49ers -6.5, O/U 37.5)
The Commanders lost their season last week. Not like mathematically, but in a vibes sense. Yeah, bitch and moan about the penalties, but they were 4-point favorites and never should’ve been in that situation anyway. Also, they had 3 weeks to prepare to beat the same team twice and couldn’t do it. The Commanders are done.
And now they have to go to San Fransisco on a short week to play a team that has had more than a week to rest?
SHEESH.
The Commanders are going to have a tough go on offense. They’re not going to be able to run it, which means they’re going to have to rely on Taylor Heinicke’s arm while he’s under pressure. He might throw 3 interceptions, maybe more. I’m not calling it or anything, but the Commanders might be on Carson Wentz watch if Heinicke plays dumb.
The 49ers are going to run and run and run. They’ll do those long drives that they always do and get the Commanders’ Defensive line all worn out. Yeah, Chase Young is going to come back this game, but I’m not sold on him being a game-changer in his first game this season. On top of that, the Commanders don’t have any depth on their line. Those long drives are going to add up and the 49ers will pull away in the second half.
Will they cover 6.5 points? Maybe, but I’m not confident. So we’ll tease it down.
Raiders @ Steelers (Steelers -2, O/U 38)
As good as the Bengals are at not letting teams score points in the second half of games, the Steelers are that bad at scoring points always. It’s a truly, exceptionally, hilariously bad offense.
We’re going to tease the Raiders up. They have an incredible +1 point differential with their 6-8 record. They don’t lose by much (Week 8 was the last time they lost by more than 1 score), so If I can tease them over a touchdown, I’m going to do just that.
6-Point Teaser 49ers -.5 Raiders +8