‘22-’23 record: 7-7

Last week there were some big spreads. This week we’re looking at 11 of the 14 Sunday games being 3.5 points or less. 3 of those are 1 point. I’m a big fan of that. That means that chances are we’re not going to get a lot of those blow-out stinkers we saw last week.

Like I said on the Thursday Breakdown, we were profitable because of those blowouts, but they just sucked to watch. 

Unfortunately for me, I’m flying to Philly this weekend for the Birds game, so I’m not going to get to watch any of the other 8 games on the early slate.  

By the way, 9 games on the early slate and 3 games on the late slate is a crime. NFL schedulers should be shot out of a cannon into the Sun for that one.

Vikings @ Saints @ London (Vikings -3, O/U 43.5)

Here’s what we got going into this game:

Dalvin Cook is out and Alexander Mattison is in. Mattison is good, but he doesn’t have the spices that Cook works with. 

Justin Jefferson gets to line up against Marshawn Lattimore most of the game. Marshawn Lattimore is a noted good football player who has shut down Jefferson in the past. 

Jameis is broken, tattered, and shattered. Andy Dalton is his backup.

Michael Thomas is broken as well.  

Alvin Kamara doesn’t do much if he doesn’t have Drew Brees dumping it off to him.

The Saints’ offense doesn’t bail out their defense. 

43.5 points is a tiny O/U, but this game has all the makings for a 17-14 game. 

Under 43.5.

Browns @ Falcons (Browns -1, O/U 47.5)

The Browns looked good last week. Yeah, it was against a Watt-less Steelers team, but they were still good. Do you know who the Falcons don’t have?

TJ Watt.

Do you know what else the Falcons don’t have? Anyone on defense. 

The Falcons are allergic to making Kyle Pitts a significant part of their passing game, and he still had more production the Drake London, which is very sadly funny. Marcus Mariota has been fine, which is good for him I guess. I truly thought he was going to be much worse, but look at me with egg on my face. 

You could make an argument that Mitch Trubisky is better than Marcus Mariota.

You could make that argument. 

It’s a bad argument and I won’t hear it, but it is still an argument to be made.

The Browns were able to handle Mitch very well, and since he’s worse than Mariota, I think they’ll be able to handle Mariota decently well. 

They’ll probably have Myles Garrett playing. I say that for two reasons:

1. Myles Garrett is tougher than Justin Herbert and Justin Herbert played.

2. Myles Garrett is an absolute psychopath.

I see this Browns Defense being able to shut down most of the Falcons’ single-faceted (based only on Corderelle Patterson) rushing game. 

Jacoby Brissett has been somewhere between “He’s doing pretty good” and “He’s not that bad”. He’ll be able to pick apart the Falcons’ SUPER shitty defensive backs and Chubb and Hunt force themselves upon the Falcons in a way that will make Deshaun Watson feel proud.

Browns -1

Cardinals @ Panthers (Cardinals +1, O/U 43.5)

I’m actually kind of excited to watch the in-season Hard Knocks this year. The Cardinals are frauds, which is something we all expected, but they’re not as bad as they’ve been looking.

They have the ability to put together drives, and if they can consistently do that, then they can put up big boi points. That’s only going to be helped with Rondal Moore coming back this week. 

The Panthers though? The Panthers. 

They’re just straight-up ass cheeks. Even if they can string together drives, they’ll still only get field goals. They lucked out big time with Laviska Shenault’s TWO catches this season coming when they did and going for as far as they did. Who knew Russian Mail order Brides were in the NFL? Not me.

The Cardinals should be able to absolutely steamroll a terrible Panthers team. I have no idea where or how the Cardinals are dogs here. 

Cardinals +1

Chiefs @ Buccs (Chiefs -1, O/U 45.0)

If I’ve said it once, then I’ve said it a thousand times. Tom Brady absolutely sucks in Primetime. He lives the very regimented TB12 lifestyle and once it gets to about 8:45 to 9:15 he starts slipping. On top of that, he’s been shitty this year. Yeah, they get Mike Evans back, but he can only work with that tired old Bag of Bones.

Chiefs -1