Seahawks @ 49ers (49ers -9.5 O/U 42)
This game looks kinda stinky to me. We got two quarterbacks who have never played in a playoff game before and one of them is a rookie playing in a division rivalry game where his team is going for the 3-game sweep (which, turns out is a pretty easy thing to do). It’s kind of shaping up to be not that competitive of a game, which means it’ll probably be super competitive but in a not-fun way.
The Seahawks can dig themselves in a hole quick. If they are going to stay in this game, they’re going to need to have short drives with big plays against the best defense in the league. Yikes. In order to do that Geno’s going to have to play his big boi nuts off. Unfortunately for him, he hasn’t played the 49ers that well this year. In his two games against the 49ers, he’s gone 56-74 for 435, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception (31-44, 238 yards, 1 TD in week 2 and 24-30, 197 yards, 1 INT in week 14) That’s a lot of short passes (7.7 yards/completion) and not a whole lot of points (20 between the two games). Not great.
“What about Seattle’s running game? Isn’t Kenny Walker good?”
The Seahawks have run for a total of 106 total yards against the 49ers. SHEESH.
Sure does seem like one of them things where history repeats itself and the Seahawks get nothing going. I imagine Geno becomes the spokesman for Stamps.com so it’s cheaper for him to write back.
My thoughts on the 49ers are simple:
Brock Purdy is a rookie in the playoffs which gives me reasonable doubt about how he's going to play. You mix in a little bit of Pete Carroll and I think he’ll be able to throw things at Purdy to get his brain all scrambled up. I think the 49ers are smart enough to mask the potential below-average quarterback play by adding huge amounts of their running game.
42 points seems too high for 2 teams that have played each other twice and haven’t reached 35 points in either game.
U 42.
Chargers @ Jaguars (Chargers -2.5 O/U 47)
I’m no head coach, but if I were, I would probably have given my key wide receiver who is addicted to getting hurt, a rest for a meaningless week 18 game. If you don’t there’s a chance that he could maybe get dinged up or maybe even break his back.
Enter: Brandon Staley and the Chargers.
Whoopsies! Mike Williams fractured something in his back and he’s out for the postseason. No one could’ve seen something bad like this happening except for all of us. On top of that, Justin Herbert got blasted a few times in that game, and while that’s obviously not as bad as Mike Williams’ deal, it’s still a really crazy dumb move by Brandon Staley.
I haven’t trusted the Chargers all year and I’m not about to start trusting them now. The main reason is that they’re incredibly inconsistent. I realize that a lot of that offensive flimsiness this year was because Herbert’s ribs were hurt/healing (he seems to be better now) and that they ended the season on a pretty good note, but man… it’s the Chargers and that alone is enough for me to want to fade them. I do have other reasons though.
Doug Pederson knows how to do post-season football. He gets his guys ready to play and schemes things that confuse defenses. Yeah, Joey Bosa is back and he’s good, but he left the game last Sunday because he was feeling fatigued. I have a lot of faith in the Jaguars’ ability to move the ball with long drives. They’re in the top ten in 3rd down percentage, 1st downs per play, and punt percentage. That means they can keep drives going and tire out defensive lines, then they can use Trevor Lawrence to push the ball.
All of that sounds good, but the most important things for me, are that the Jaguars didn’t have to travel across the country, have had an extra day of rest, are playing at home, AND are getting points.
Jaguars +2.5